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Sam Long 2021 Outlook


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Posted (edited)

I hadn't heard of this guy until a few days ago after @PoundMyBeefpointed him out in the minors deep sleeper thread, but it didn't take long for me to get excited about him. I have a thing for pitchers with wipeout curveballs (see the Tejay Antone thread) and this guy has one of the prettiest ones I’ve seen in a while. Here's some video from a recent triple A outing:

 

 

He made his major league debut today as the bulk guy behind an opener and unlike most of the rookies we've seen so far he dominated:

 

Here's a little more info from Razzball from earlier today:

San Francisco LHP Sam Long got the call Tuesday and figures to go second in a bullpen game in his debut today. Drafted by the Rays in 2016, Long spent 2019 with the White Soxthen landed in the Zaidi net that catches so many valuable drifters, hitting Spring Training 2021 with such a splash it invited hope and hyperbole among the fandom. Click here to read a fun piece from March titled Will Sam Long Become the Pitching Yaz?

Long then went to AA and struck out 22 across 15 innings before striking out 15 in 7.2 innings at AAA, surrendering just one hit and a walk to force a promotion this week. He’s been going about four innings each time out and hasn’t lasted later than the fourth, so we might be looking at a Tampa-style slow rollout. Sounds like he’ll debut a bulk-role, follower-slash-win-vulture, making him an enticing flier I’m planning to deploy today in my 30-team dynasty. 

 

 

Now I don't think he's a must add in most leagues, but I think he's a solid add in deeper leagues or leagues with an innings pitched limit. He's been limited to 4 inning stints in the minors so I'm not sure the Giants will change that. He threw 97 innings in 2019 so he'll have a cap regardless of his role. If things continue to line up this way, I think he'll get two appearances next week at home against Arizona and at home against Philly.

Edited by meh2
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Posted (edited)

Logan Webb likely won't return until after the All-Star break. I think Long certainly has the chance to make an impact over the next month or so, and perhaps beyond. 

Edited by PhilaFanBoy
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https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/sammy-longs-dominant-mlb-giants-debut-felt-dream

The Rangers do not have a good lineup, and Wednesday's version was particularly light on talent, but they're still big leaguers, the best hitters Long has ever faced. And he carved them up as he has everyone else this season. 

"You're always curious because Major League hitters lay off more pitches at the edges, they foul off more pitches that get younger hitters, and A-ball and Double-A hitters swing through them," manager Gabe Kapler said. "You get bailed out more frequently when you're pitching at the lower levels and obviously at this level they're the best hitters in the world. 

"I don't think there's any doubt that Sammy is going to get swings and misses on his pitches. But strikeouts are a different story altogether, and it was great to see all of his stuff play deep into counts, getting the chases below the zone, getting guys to swing just off the plate. Those are all good signs of what's to come."

https://www.knbr.com/2021/06/09/sammy-longs-debut-was-dominant-meaningful-and-everything-he-dreamed-about/

“I don’t see why he couldn’t give us 75-80 pitches, maybe more,” Kapler said after Tyler Rogers let up a soft run in the ninth and Jake McGee a ghost-runner-enabled run in the 11th, the club’s offense failing it late. “Today I think he demonstrated that he can maintain his stuff deeper into a pitch count. I don’t see any reason why, if it makes sense strategically, we wouldn’t have him on the table to start a baseball game for us.”

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[...] power lefty who is now stretched out. Projected to start on Monday. 
 

Has a good fastball with average velocity around 95mph and a power curve. Had a great spring training. 
 

Possibly a one start guy and sent back down to minors once Giants SP staff healthy. Thoughts on this kid?

Edited by tonycpsu
Merged with existing thread. Check the pinned index thread next time.
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8 hours ago, BradMaddox said:

[...] power lefty who is now stretched out. Projected to start on Monday. 
 

Has a good fastball with average velocity around 95mph and a power curve. Had a great spring training. 
 

Possibly a one start guy and sent back down to minors once Giants SP staff healthy. Thoughts on this kid?

any chance he gets two starts next week?  both would be home which is always a plus....

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12 hours ago, BradMaddox said:

[...] power lefty who is now stretched out. Projected to start on Monday. 
 

Has a good fastball with average velocity around 95mph and a power curve. Had a great spring training. 
 

Possibly a one start guy and sent back down to minors once Giants SP staff healthy. Thoughts on this kid?

Source on the start? Searched twitter and don’t see that stated just yet. 

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4 hours ago, WTP333 said:

Source on the start? Searched twitter and don’t see that stated just yet. 

Giants have 7 games scheduled for next week so he should line up for appearances (I say appearances because he might follow an opener again) on Tuesday and then again on Sunday. Obviously that could change if there’s a rainout before that so it’s not a given.

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Was basically all FA and CU, with the CH just mixed in, also threw a couple of sinkers and sliders.

Nothing really appears all that plus, also the FA did not sit 95...it averaged 93, which is fine from the left side. The curve did look pretty good and fooled guys, has a nice swooping shape that gets far more vertical action then it does horizontally. He was impressive with his mechanics/delivery and the command can make up for a lack of 'wow' stuff...esp pitching behind a solid defense in that park.

Was a shorter first glimpse, hoping to see more of the change and maybe slider, as they break up his velo spectrum really nicely. Interesting deep league player.

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6 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

pitching doesn't mean starting. 

Yes, quite true. Personally I’d prefer he follow an opener since we know he’s not pitching more than 4 or 5 innings. He’ll at least have a shot at a win if he follows the opener.

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22 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Unless you're in a QS league it probably doesn't matter if he starts or comes in after an opener, often it's probably better if he starts the 2nd inning and misses the top of the lineup.

Is there some news that I'm missing that suggests the Giants aren't using Wood tonight as a traditional starter? 

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10 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

No, long is tomorrow I think 

This.  ESPN blurb on his player page had him listed as a potential start for today but I believe their starter for tomorrow is TBA so I think that's when we will see Long one way or the other.

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16 hours ago, meh2 said:

Yes, quite true. Personally I’d prefer he follow an opener since we know he’s not pitching more than 4 or 5 innings. He’ll at least have a shot at a win if he follows the opener.

He is not going to pitch more than 4 or 5 innings is this key. Looks good but for this season does he offer a chance at qs. He will probably eat some innings.

Edited by ChrisChinMcCaffrey
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40 minutes ago, ChrisChinMcCaffrey said:

He is not going to pitch more than 4 or 5 innings is this key. Looks good but for this season does he offer a chance at qs. He will probably eat some innings.

He’s a deep league guy for sure and probably more of a watch list guy to see how things play out in quality start leagues. I’m in weekly leagues that roster over 100 pitchers and I’m hoping for 8-9 innings this week with 10-12k’s, good ratios, and maybe a shot for a win. That’s probably his ceiling right now. His floor is potentially a Lynch/Kowar rookie implosion.

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On 6/15/2021 at 5:47 AM, meh2 said:

He’s a deep league guy for sure and probably more of a watch list guy to see how things play out in quality start leagues. I’m in weekly leagues that roster over 100 pitchers and I’m hoping for 8-9 innings this week with 10-12k’s, good ratios, and maybe a shot for a win. That’s probably his ceiling right now. His floor is potentially a Lynch/Kowar rookie implosion.

I’d imagine your weekly leagues roster a lot more than 100. I’m in a 14tm weekly where 112 pitchers start every week...currently 175 pitchers rostered. And in my 12tmers, we start 96 everyday (175 and 142 rostered). 

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