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Trade deadline watch, bullpen edition


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Who would be the main guy to look for in Chicago, say, if Tepera is dealt? Do you guys really think Brothers can jump that far? I would think Chafin would be next in line, and I'm seriously doubting they deal all of these guys. Hoyer was quoted as while he needs to trade off assets, he isn't using the word "rebuild" and is referring to it more as a turnaround or something. I would think Tepera stays, and he makes the most sense for saves if he does. I honestly think the Cubs will keep the bullpen beyond Kimbrel in tact. Would Dylan Maples be considered a deep sleeper? Also, Justin Steele is at AAA...is he working in the pen or starting? He's got some good stuff...

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2 hours ago, nlm said:

Who would be the main guy to look for in Chicago, say, if Tepera is dealt? Do you guys really think Brothers can jump that far? I would think Chafin would be next in line, and I'm seriously doubting they deal all of these guys. Hoyer was quoted as while he needs to trade off assets, he isn't using the word "rebuild" and is referring to it more as a turnaround or something. I would think Tepera stays, and he makes the most sense for saves if he does. I honestly think the Cubs will keep the bullpen beyond Kimbrel in tact. Would Dylan Maples be considered a deep sleeper? Also, Justin Steele is at AAA...is he working in the pen or starting? He's got some good stuff...

We've discussed this one quite a bit, but Chafin is going to be in high demand for a lefty specialist. He'll be dealt in all likelihood. I'm pointing out that it may not work out as we hope, that a Kimbrel trade leads to a Tepera closer promotion; it rarely does, and I could see a scenario where all 3 are gone and Brothers steps in, absolutely. He's certainly not owned in many leagues despite some appeal. Also, a reminder to all that this year's deadline falls on the 30th; MLB wanted to avoid a Saturday deadline, so it will be EOB on Friday. 

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20 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

 

Lastly, the Yankees-I saw someone post here, can't recall which thread, that they traded the aforementioned Soto and something else to acquire Chapman in an AL-only league a month back, and since then, Soto had more saves and Chapman was at risk of being replaced. If you told someone that was even a possible outcome, they would have laughed in your face, so it shows how unpredictable the game can be. Add Britton. The disaster by Chad Green against Houston will preclude him from the next save chance, but Boone said he will close with Britton upon his return. He could soon be in a co-committee with Aroldis with an inside track if he pitches better than Chapman.

When/where did Boone say Briton will use Britton as the closer upon his return? I follow the Yankees beat writers daily and I haven't seen anything even close to that.

Britton's as good a guess as any, but Green has been their most consistent reliever for years and he's not "precluded" because of one blowup. However, if the Yankees keep losing (if they ever start playing again...), Green's probably their most valuable realistic trade candidate. 

I still think Boone is going to try Chapman again first. I don't have any confidence it'll turn out well for him. 

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6 minutes ago, StuckBetweenStations said:

When/where did Boone say Briton will use Britton as the closer upon his return? I follow the Yankees beat writers daily and I haven't seen anything even close to that.

Britton's as good a guess as any, but Green has been their most consistent reliever for years and he's not "precluded" because of one blowup. However, if the Yankees keep losing (if they ever start playing again...), Green's probably their most valuable realistic trade candidate. 

I still think Boone is going to try Chapman again first. I don't have any confidence it'll turn out well for him. 

Was about a week ago, he said he was going to try to put Chapman in positive situations (I have no idea why a 7-2 lead in the 9th against Houston doesn't qualify) and then when it came to Britton said (paraphrasing) "We will close with Britton as well once he returns." So I agree it's Chapman on a very short leash, and I keep saying Britton is going to get Ottavino/Lugo type role and get some saves. Full-time, too soon to say.

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Chapman is going to get multiple shots at being the closer imo.  They will give him a couple of easy ops in non-pressure situations, and depending on how he does in those, work him back in at closer.  Obviously if he struggles still then they won't, but he's their guy and closers with his history get repeated chances to hold the job again.   I look at Kimbrel as a bit of a comp here.  He's had some struggles with control and performance at different times during his career and has always been given repeated shots at the gig again.  He's tended to right the ship, and this year he's as elite as ever.  I see Chapman as getting similar treatment.  The variable is always whether or not the pitcher reverts to form at some point. 

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AL East

NYY-Chapman will keep job

BOS- Barnes will keep job, rumors on them getting Kimbrel are silly, they won’t blow past the luxury tax.

TBR-avoid their committee.

BAL - committee so avoid.

TOR-They might get an upgrade over Romano but might not.

 

AL Central

KCR-despite his struggles Barlow is still their best RP.

DET-Cisnero will be traded and Fulmer might too and is unreliable. Soto is unreliable too so just avoid. 
 

CLE-Karinchak and Clase stay.

MIN-Robles will be traded and Rogers will likely get the job unless traded.

CWS-Hendriks is keeping job.

 

AL West

SEA-Graveman likely stays, if they trade him it will be Sewald.

LAA-Iglesias stays and if traded I guess Mayer’s takes over but he sucks.

HOU-they might upgrade on Pressly or not.

TEX-Kennedy is gone and might not close elsewhere. Joely Rosriguez is your stash.

OAK-They’ll Fet an upgrade over Trivino.

 

NL East

ATL-Smith stays.

MIA-Yimi is gone and won’t be a closer anywhere else. Bender is your stash.

PHI-Suarez has been good but they may upgrade.

WAS-Hand may be traded and then Hudson likely takes over.  They might keep him though.

NYM-Diaz stays.

 

NL Central

STL-Reyes stays.

CHC-Kimbrel is gone and so are his likely replacements. 
CIN-They’ll either get an upgrade or Hembree gets moved. 

PIT-stash David Bednar is Rodriguez is gone.

MIL-Hader stays.

 

NL West

LAD-Jansen stays.

SFG-They’ll get an upgrade. 

SDP-Melancon stays.

ARI-Soria is gone and then a committee. 

COL-Bard is either gone or they keep him. No one to stash.

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24 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

AL East

NYY-Chapman will keep job

BOS- Barnes will keep job, rumors on them getting Kimbrel are silly, they won’t blow past the luxury tax.

TBR-avoid their committee.

BAL - committee so avoid.

TOR-They might get an upgrade over Romano but might not.

 

AL Central

KCR-despite his struggles Barlow is still their best RP.

DET-Cisnero will be traded and Fulmer might too and is unreliable. Soto is unreliable too so just avoid. 
 

CLE-Karinchak and Clase stay.

MIN-Robles will be traded and Rogers will likely get the job unless traded.

CWS-Hendriks is keeping job.

 

AL West

SEA-Graveman likely stays, if they trade him it will be Sewald.

LAA-Iglesias stays and if traded I guess Mayer’s takes over but he sucks.

HOU-they might upgrade on Pressly or not.

TEX-Kennedy is gone and might not close elsewhere. Joely Rosriguez is your stash.

OAK-They’ll Fet an upgrade over Trivino.

 

NL East

ATL-Smith stays.

MIA-Yimi is gone and won’t be a closer anywhere else. Bender is your stash.

PHI-Suarez has been good but they may upgrade.

WAS-Hand may be traded and then Hudson likely takes over.  They might keep him though.

NYM-Diaz stays.

 

NL Central

STL-Reyes stays.

CHC-Kimbrel is gone and so are his likely replacements. 
CIN-They’ll either get an upgrade or Hembree gets moved. 

PIT-stash David Bednar is Rodriguez is gone.

MIL-Hader stays.

 

NL West

LAD-Jansen stays.

SFG-They’ll get an upgrade. 

SDP-Melancon stays.

ARI-Soria is gone and then a committee. 

COL-Bard is either gone or they keep him. No one to stash.

You think SF needs to go upgrade?  Their pen has been solid.  They have other needs. 

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1 hour ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Soto is unreliable too so just avoid. 

This is definitely bad advice, Soto's YTD season numbers are pretty good despite a high WHIP, he has his occasional hiccup, but he's going to be valuable. Don't understand the hate for him, other than he's on the Tigers (who are playing good ball for awhile now). If you are in a position to grab Soto right now, versus any of these other stashes, I'd take him. FWIW I prefer him at this point over co-committee guys like Clase, Castillo, Robles. Bednar and Bender are probably the only two I'd consider, and its not like the Marlins and Pirates are any better than Detroit. Being named an All-Star makes a huge difference, it earns him a 5 spot ranking bump. 

I find it hard to believe anyone in real life will trade for Bard, Soria, Hembree, at least separately, perhaps as a throw-in to acquire a position player like Story or Escobar, for example.  Honestly, if I have Kennedy or Rodriguez and I'm certain they'll be dealt, why wouldn't I just add Soto or one of the above now? If the trade happens as expected, you still may be able to land the replacement with a FAAB bid, but just in case you're outbid, you still have a source of saves. If you have space for more than 1 insurance policy, that is another story, then go with the situation that has the most upside.

I prefer taking the available closer, and then being prepared to go after the new guy once the deal is confirmed. But if Yimi Garcia is traded tomorrow, people will still take a shot on Floro and Bass, too, just in case. Stashing now to get ahead of the feeding frenzy is good, just not at the expense of an incumbent closer. There are no guarantees. Mostly agree with your updates, though I could dispute a few other things from the list, but this is the main one I take issue with. Recommending Barlow in KC is something I agree with, and I'd probably put him a notch below Soto just b/c the Matheny factor, but they both are trending upward for the 2nd half. 

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11 hours ago, pduce242424 said:

You think SF needs to go upgrade?  Their pen has been solid.  They have other needs. 

I mean hitting is their biggest need, but look at this:

Tyler Rogers: 5.02 K/9 3.86 xFIP

Jake McGee: 3.76 xFIP

I just think neither is reliable. There’s a reason they can’t commit to either one. 

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9 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

This is definitely bad advice, Soto's YTD season numbers are pretty good despite a high WHIP, he has his occasional hiccup, but he's going to be valuable. Don't understand the hate for him, other than he's on the Tigers (who are playing good ball for awhile now). If you are in a position to grab Soto right now, versus any of these other stashes, I'd take him. FWIW I prefer him at this point over co-committee guys like Clase, Castillo, Robles. Bednar and Bender are probably the only two I'd consider, and its not like the Marlins and Pirates are any better than Detroit. Being named an All-Star makes a huge difference, it earns him a 5 spot ranking bump. 

I find it hard to believe anyone in real life will trade for Bard, Soria, Hembree, at least separately, perhaps as a throw-in to acquire a position player like Story or Escobar, for example.  Honestly, if I have Kennedy or Rodriguez and I'm certain they'll be dealt, why wouldn't I just add Soto or one of the above now? If the trade happens as expected, you still may be able to land the replacement with a FAAB bid, but just in case you're outbid, you still have a source of saves. If you have space for more than 1 insurance policy, that is another story, then go with the situation that has the most upside.

I prefer taking the available closer, and then being prepared to go after the new guy once the deal is confirmed. But if Yimi Garcia is traded tomorrow, people will still take a shot on Floro and Bass, too, just in case. Stashing now to get ahead of the feeding frenzy is good, just not at the expense of an incumbent closer. There are no guarantees. Mostly agree with your updates, though I could dispute a few other things from the list, but this is the main one I take issue with. Recommending Barlow in KC is something I agree with, and I'd probably put him a notch below Soto just b/c the Matheny factor, but they both are trending upward for the 2nd half. 

Gregory Soto: 5.25 BB/9  3.61 FIP  4.05 xFIP

Pretty bad FanGraphs projections ROS as well. I mean if one is desperate for saves then sure, but he’s going to hurt his owners. This guy just isn’t closer material and Detroit will be worse once they move the likes of Schoop at the deadline.

 

According to Closer Monkey, Soria is a lock to be traded. He has a 0.96 ERA over the last month. Yes you read that right: Soria has a 0.96 ERA over the last month. Is that sustainable? Obviously not, but he’s not the over 4 ERA guy he was early in the season. He has a track record and the results, he’s gone 100%.

There’s zero chance he’s in Arizona on July 31. I agree with you on Bard though. Hembree has been good, which is why he’s a closer, so if Cincinnati end up selling, he’s gone. 
 

I think it really depends on your league and saves situation. You should stash based on the rest of your closers and the likelihood of them losing their jobs. I do agree that Floro and Bass are going to get picked up too. Still,  some owners go crazy. I’ve seen Bender go in one league for $25 FAAB and Hembree for around $10. I think the earlier you stash the better. You can get Bednar for $0 in Yahoo! right now, come July 30 he might be going for $10 to some desperate owner who just saw both of his closers lose their jobs. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, herschel said:

So who are people stashing as we get closer to the deadline? 

Well, the Pirates released Kyle Crick yesterday, so if there was any doubt about Bednar being the stash behind Rodriguez, there shouldn't be now. He's an excellent stash.

Most likely Tepera and Chafin are stashed for the Cubs, and if Hector Neris was dropped, you should take a shot on him. I think the Phillies are the team in most need of Kimbrel's services, but right now its a committee. 

Also, Anthony Bender's stock is down a bit, but he's still the stash for Miami. Beyond that, I added Spencer Patton in a league earlier, as I like him to get the first shot after Kennedy. Elsewhere in the AL East, Sewald is probably owned in many leagues, but Mayers could be worthwhile if Iglesias gets moved. I'd look to stash those spots first, but as I've said before, would rather grab guys like Soto. Soria who are currently closing and aren't as guaranteed to be dealt at the deadline. 

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3 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

Well, the Pirates released Kyle Crick yesterday, so if there was any doubt about Bednar being the stash behind Rodriguez, there shouldn't be now. He's an excellent stash.

Most likely Tepera and Chafin are stashed for the Cubs, and if Hector Neris was dropped, you should take a shot on him. I think the Phillies are the team in most need of Kimbrel's services, but right now its a committee. 

Also, Anthony Bender's stock is down a bit, but he's still the stash for Miami. Beyond that, I added Spencer Patton in a league earlier, as I like him to get the first shot after Kennedy. Elsewhere in the AL East, Sewald is probably owned in many leagues, but Mayers could be worthwhile if Iglesias gets moved. I'd look to stash those spots first, but as I've said before, would rather grab guys like Soto. Soria who are currently closing and aren't as guaranteed to be dealt at the deadline. 

Much appreciated.

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3 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

Well, the Pirates released Kyle Crick yesterday, so if there was any doubt about Bednar being the stash behind Rodriguez, there shouldn't be now. He's an excellent stash.

Most likely Tepera and Chafin are stashed for the Cubs, and if Hector Neris was dropped, you should take a shot on him. I think the Phillies are the team in most need of Kimbrel's services, but right now its a committee. 

Also, Anthony Bender's stock is down a bit, but he's still the stash for Miami. Beyond that, I added Spencer Patton in a league earlier, as I like him to get the first shot after Kennedy. Elsewhere in the AL East, Sewald is probably owned in many leagues, but Mayers could be worthwhile if Iglesias gets moved. I'd look to stash those spots first, but as I've said before, would rather grab guys like Soto. Soria who are currently closing and aren't as guaranteed to be dealt at the deadline. 

Dude stop telling people to stash Soria, That’s really bad advice when trusted sources like Closer Monkey keep saying that Soria is a lock to be moved. So is common sense. He’s been quietly dominant for the last month. Mayers has been pretty bad and reports say that the Angels won’t sell. Even if they do, why would you stash a guy who has terrible numbers? Tepera and Chafin are both likely to be traded and Neris isn’t getting his job back, Philly are either acquiring a new closer or keeping Ranger in the role.

Bednar and Bender are right though. 

Edited by Thenewwildone8
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Just now, Thenewwildone8 said:

Dude stop telling people to stash Soria, Thsts really bad advice when trusted sources like Closer Monkey keep saying that Soria is a lock to be moved. He’s been quietly dominant for the last month. Mayers has been pretty bad and reports say that the Angels won’t sell. Even if they do, why would you stash a guy who has terrible numbers? Tepera and Chafin are both likely to be traded and Neris isn’t getting his job back, Philly are either acquiring a new closer or keeping Ranger in the role.

You just won't listen to any of the points regarding this, and you definitely should check your tone, I'm not your dude, dude. There's 10 days until the deadline, perhaps Soria does get moved but he can earn saves until then. You just take issue with one thing, your perspective is your own but we're done with this nonsense, if someone chooses a stash over Soria, that's their prerogative. I'll take Joakim and worry about fallout from other situations later. Lol@Closer Monkey as reliable, I follow them regularly enough that they are often behind on many situations.

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31 minutes ago, Richard Kimble said:

You just won't listen to any of the points regarding this, and you definitely should check your tone, I'm not your dude, dude. There's 10 days until the deadline, perhaps Soria does get moved but he can earn saves until then. You just take issue with one thing, your perspective is your own but we're done with this nonsense, if someone chooses a stash over Soria, that's their prerogative. I'll take Joakim and worry about fallout from other situations later. Lol@Closer Monkey as reliable, I follow them regularly enough that they are often behind on many situations.

The “New Wild One” is…definitely someone whose history you should check before engaging

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

The “New Wild One” is…definitely someone whose history you should check before engaging

LOL..Soria nailed down another save about 2 minutes after the rant, FWIW. If you had just stashed someone instead of Joakim two weeks ago you'd have missed out on 4-5 saves or more; furthermore, it should be obvious enough that if you're in a league where Soria is/was still on the wire as of recently, then stashing isn't as necessary because that is a league that is slower to react to closer movements than highly competitive ones. 

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10 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

You just won't listen to any of the points regarding this, and you definitely should check your tone, I'm not your dude, dude. There's 10 days until the deadline, perhaps Soria does get moved but he can earn saves until then. You just take issue with one thing, your perspective is your own but we're done with this nonsense, if someone chooses a stash over Soria, that's their prerogative. I'll take Joakim and worry about fallout from other situations later. Lol@Closer Monkey as reliable, I follow them regularly enough that they are often behind on many situations.

now you sound like Leonard Washington talking to Rodney "QUILLS" Dinkins......

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10 hours ago, Richard Kimble said:

You just won't listen to any of the points regarding this, and you definitely should check your tone, I'm not your dude, dude. There's 10 days until the deadline, perhaps Soria does get moved but he can earn saves until then. You just take issue with one thing, your perspective is your own but we're done with this nonsense, if someone chooses a stash over Soria, that's their prerogative. I'll take Joakim and worry about fallout from other situations later. Lol@Closer Monkey as reliable, I follow them regularly enough that they are often behind on many situations.

Why don't you stop talking for a while? Maybe sit the next couple of plays  out - Brian Fantana - quickmeme

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Something that hasn't really been touched on is auditing the value of current closers/RP that have gotten save opportunities this season:

Kimbrel:  Going to be the closer and remain elite regardless of where he goes unless a team like the Dodgers or Padres trade for him to further their super-pen to help overcome injury or general gigantic POS (cheers Trevor Bauer) issues with their rotations

Rodriguez:  Would slide into a closer's role in Philadelphia or maybe Toronto (50/50 that he takes it or Romano keeps it IMO), but likely becomes a 7th or 8th inning guy elsewhere; could also maybe get some save chances in SF but McGee looks legit again

Kennedy:  See Rodriguez, although I think he's not quite as good as Rodriguez, so unlikely he takes the job in Toronto or SF...a likely setup role if he gets dealt

Graveman:  Don't think he gets dealt, but see Rodriguez.

Iglesias:  I don't think he gets dealt, but he would likely be the closer wherever he gets dealt unless it's to a team with an elite closer (LA, SD, Milwaukee, Boston)

Hand:  See Iglesias

Robles/Rogers/Fulmer/Cisnero/Soria/Bard/Y.Garcia/Hudson:  Near 0% chance any of these pitchers would get a chance to close on a new team...likely head for a 6th or 7th inning role if dealt.

Edited by jmoney23
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, jmoney23 said:

Something that hasn't really been touched on is auditing the value of current closers/RP that have gotten save opportunities this season:

Kimbrel:  Going to be the closer and remain elite regardless of where he goes unless a team like the Dodgers or Padres trade for him to further their super-pen to help overcome injury or general gigantic POS (cheers Trevor Bauer) issues with their rotations

Rodriguez:  Would slide into a closer's role in Philadelphia or maybe Toronto (50/50 that he takes it or Romano keeps it IMO), but likely becomes a 7th or 8th inning guy elsewhere; could also maybe get some save chances in SF but McGee looks legit again

Kennedy:  See Rodriguez, although I think he's not quite as good as Rodriguez, so unlikely he takes the job in Toronto or SF...a likely setup role if he gets dealt

Graveman:  Don't think he gets dealt, but see Rodriguez.

Iglesias:  I don't think he gets dealt, but he would likely be the closer wherever he gets dealt unless it's to a team with an elite closer (LA, SD, Milwaukee, Boston)

Hand:  See Iglesias

Robles/Rogers/Fulmer/Cisnero/Soria/Bard/Y.Garcia/Hudson:  Near 0% chance any of these pitchers would get a chance to close on a new team...likely head for a 6th or 7th inning role if dealt.

Quite a good round up, back when I wrote the initial post, I did speculate on which players would stay on as closers, but the situation has evolved for many since.

Even a few weeks ago, it was harder to figure out which contending team had a need for a guy like Kimbrel; while there is still a small chance he gets dealt somewhere like Boston and shares opportunities with Barnes (the speculation being that Barnes' recent raise would help quell any controversy there) Kimbrel's going to stay in the 9th inning primarily.

The rest are uncertain; we've gotten little tidbits, like quotes from the Mariners indicating they are buyers, not sellers. With a guy like Hand, I remember looking at his contract as a one-year deal and thinking he's likely to be moved, like Graveman and Garcia, etc., but it also depends on whether those guys have team options for next year. A team like the Nationals may just hang onto Hand even if they aren't contending for the division, planning to possibly deal him at the deadline next year, since they'd likely spend that much in FA anyway. A smaller team like Seattle or Miami has more incentive to turn a sunk cost into a prospect.

There are also more teams that are definitely in for setup men due to recent injury-Brewers and Dodgers come to mind. But nonetheless, if you own one of those bottom-end guys, I'd keep them on your team if at all possible, because I continue to maintain there is not a huge market for their services this year, and that you can potentially be burned by dropping a guy like Bard, etc., if those trades never materialize.

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