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Wander Franco 2021 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

I care more about exit velocity than xBA. He's been crushing the ball just right at guys which typically has a pretty low xBA, the hits will come

The direction of the hit does not play into xBA at all.  Exit velocity and launch angle do, though.  

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6 minutes ago, Fbaseballgod said:

I said why I brought it up in the first sentence of my post. "For those saying Wander has been unlucky so far."  My post was simply to demonstrate that he has, in fact, not gotten unlucky so far.  Nothing more, nothing less.  

Very well.  He’s currently batting .105 - your analysis reveals he should be batting nearly 60 points higher than that.

How has he not been unlucky so far?

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6 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Are we concerned about Wander's height? 

He's at least 5'10", right?

Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Ramirez

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Very well.  He’s currently batting .105 - your analysis reveals he should be batting nearly 60 points higher than that.

How has he not been unlucky so far?

... well actually, it's not that simple, because I didn't calculate all the hits he got that were less than 1000x BA which should be subtracted from his total.  Aaaand you really need to subtract major points if you want to take away 75% of the HR he hit because that's been his one major contribution so far (his line would look almost useless without it).  But without trying to do more research than I already have, the point I was trying to make is that anyone saying he has been making solid contact, lining it all over the place.... not really.  

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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41 minutes ago, evillaw4eva said:

Kelenic 2.0. At least he probably won’t get sent down

i think we need a larger sample size still before we judge. lets see what he looks like after 100-120 abs at least. i did expect given the hype, acuna tatis soto type  production given they are his generational talent  peers.

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56 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Are we concerned about Wander's height? 

He's at least 5'10", right?


I was at one point but some perspective…

 

Bregman is 5’10”

JoRam is 5’9”

Mookie 5’9”

Edgar Martinez was 5’10”

 

Wander’s bat speed, contact skills, barrel control, and approach matter much more and more than markup for his height 

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His 1st game was great.  Of the last 4 I've seen around 6 plate appearances.  I saw 2 line outs and 1 dropped fly ball (not a pop up) that plated 2 but was ruled an error for the BOS LF misjudging the ball flight path.  He's got some good contact going just has been unlucky.  I'll be concerned if he has another week of hitting .150

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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Only now, at the end, do you understand.

His feeble skills were no match for the power of the advanced predictive statistical analysis.

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The Kelenic argument is lazy and incorrect. Wander is hitting the ball hard, the exit velocity’s bare that out, and he isn’t chasing stuff out of the zone, even still now with the slump he is in. Last AB of the game last night he drew a bases loaded walk after fouling off a few pitches to walk in a run, so he isn’t letting it bother him very much. The hits will come, be patient.

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11 hours ago, Fbaseballgod said:

... well actually, it's not that simple, because I didn't calculate all the hits he got that were less than 1000x BA which should be subtracted from his total.  Aaaand you really need to subtract major points if you want to take away 75% of the HR he hit because that's been his one major contribution so far (his line would look almost useless without it).  But without trying to do more research than I already have, the point I was trying to make is that anyone saying he has been making solid contact, lining it all over the place.... not really.  

His xBA is .191. Boom! Done. 
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/wander-franco-677551?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

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12 hours ago, evillaw4eva said:

Kelenic 2.0. At least he probably won’t get sent down

Let's wait to see if he bats under .100 for his first 80 ABs before we call him Kelenic 2.0.  I think Franco is a much better prospect that Kelenic (Franco's hit well over .300 at every level whereas Kelenic hit .253 in AA in 2019 and was obviously not ready for the majors, especially after a year and a half off due to the pandemic).  That said, most hitting prospects struggle initially when they get called up like Kelenic and Adell or even Mike Trout did the first year he got called up.  (I'm much more confident in rookie pitcher than rookie hitters in general.)  I'm not expecting Franco to be a fantasy star right away, but I still think Franco is the best hitting prospect in baseball and will provide some low-end fantasy value this year.

Edited by FootballFan101
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1 hour ago, Overlord said:

A single?  Where's the power?

 

He has a 1/1 BB/K ratio right now and doesn’t swing out of the strike zone and has had plenty of hard hit balls end up right at someone. If you haven’t watched him and can’t tell the difference between him and Kelenic then I don’t know what to tell you.

Edited by killa3312
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Just now, killa3312 said:

He has a 1/1 BB/K ratio right now and doesn’t swing out of the strike zone and has had plenty of hard hit balls end up right at someone. If you haven’t watched him and can’t tell the difference between him and Kelenic then I don’t know what to tell you.

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12 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Just so you know, Kelenic is going to be good too. Somewhere between average mlb big leaguer and star player. Saying he's another Kelenic is just a double bad take. 

I’m 99% sure people are saying these things ironically.  I certainly hope nobody is giving up on these players after a combined like 30 games lol

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