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2021 Rotoworld Mock Real League


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6 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Yahoo gave me an "A" grade for that draft.

So, I'm pretty much doomed.

I had this gem in my team report card:

 

Reach Pick

You might have gotten a little too excited when making the decision to select Callaway in the 16th round, about 55 rounds earlier than his ADP of 999. Callaway is projected to score 0 fantasy points this season with the Chiefs.

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Not sure I should put much stock in FFC's RB rankings, since, in this league, he selected 7 RBs, not one of which is worth a plugged nickel.

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If you're bored of Yahoo's report card, and you still want an idea of how "well" you drafted, then you can check the prop betting lines for some of your players:

https://www.oddsboom.com/football/nfl/rb-player-props/

https://www.oddsboom.com/football/nfl/wr-player-props/

https://www.oddsboom.com/football/nfl/qb-player-props/

These aren't odds from the sharpest books, some of them seem to be teasing action rather than profit, but at least you'll get a baseline number to think about. 

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10 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

The yahoo draft grader is sponsored by the big 12 not sec

if you don’t draft a kicker or defense, they tend to not like that … and I tend not to read it … 

Ive got a top QB, top TE, 3 potential WR1s, Mike Williams, and a bunch of timeshare backs that’ll probably produce on par with the backs taken in rounds 4-6. Really liking Jamaal Williams this year (upside capped by Lions, but he’s legit and that OL is no joke)
 

Good luck this year 

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Really hoping the hype stays quiet because Williams is a key component of my strategy this year …

12th highest graded RB in the league last year

1 of the highest grades RBs in the NFL at avoiding negative runs / creating big plays

1 of the highest graded RBs in pass protection, highest graded “catch rate” among all RBs

Potentially dominant OL, awful WR options 

Would be getting a ton more hype if he wasn’t overshadowed by Aaron Jones (rightfully so) … great player behind a great OL that should see 10–15 touches a week for dirt cheap.

He should be on a lot more people’s radars

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3 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

if you don’t draft a kicker or defense, they tend to not like that … and I tend not to read it … 

Ive got a top QB, top TE, 3 potential WR1s, Mike Williams, and a bunch of timeshare backs that’ll probably produce on par with the backs taken in rounds 4-6. Really liking Jamaal Williams this year (upside capped by Lions, but he’s legit and that OL is no joke)
 

Good luck this year 

Nice squad, as always...but you made the mistake of drafting Kenny Drop-a-day. He's likely to be a bust. 

This is right on the lines of your plugging of Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, and Steve Johnson. Unreasonable expectations. 

One of my discount WRs (Waddle, Shenault, or Davis) will definitely outscore him.

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24 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Nice squad, as always...but you made the mistake of drafting Kenny Drop-a-day. He's likely to be a bust. 

This is right on the lines of your plugging of Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, and Steve Johnson. Unreasonable expectations. 

One of my discount WRs (Waddle, Shenault, or Davis) will definitely outscore him.

Considering the advanced metrics painting Jones/Golladay skill sets as a literal perfect match (highest rated deep passer, contested catch aficionado), the fact that he produced with David Blough (Golladay’s career year involved Stafford being out half a season), and analyzing Golladay from a catch%, yard per target/reception, and using the giants pass attempts even from last year … (there’s more math, I don’t feel like explaining it)

The floor for Golladay is 60-65 receptions, 1000-1100 yards, and 5+ TDs 

Key word: Floor, with no reason whatsoever of him not hitting at least that.

He needs 6-8 targets a game to be an elite WR … and he’s going to get that - with a QB that graded as the best QB on those deep balls.

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Just now, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Considering the advanced metrics painting Jones/Golladay skill sets as a literal perfect match (highest rated deep passer, contested catch aficionado), the fact that he produced with David Blough (Golladay’s career year involved Stafford being out half a season), and analyzing Golladay from a catch%, yard per target/reception, and using the giants pass attempts even from last year … (there’s more math, I don’t feel like explaining it)

The floor for Golladay is 60-65 receptions, 1000-1100 yards, and 5+ TDs 

Key word: Floor, with no reason whatsoever of him not hitting at least that.

He needs 6-8 targets a game to be an elite WR … and he’s going to get that - with a QB that graded as the best QB on those deep balls.

and he’s my WR3. Not too worried about him.

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22 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Considering the advanced metrics painting Jones/Golladay skill sets as a literal perfect match (highest rated deep passer, contested catch aficionado), the fact that he produced with David Blough (Golladay’s career year involved Stafford being out half a season), and analyzing Golladay from a catch%, yard per target/reception, and using the giants pass attempts even from last year … (there’s more math, I don’t feel like explaining it)

The floor for Golladay is 60-65 receptions, 1000-1100 yards, and 5+ TDs 

Key word: Floor, with no reason whatsoever of him not hitting at least that.

He needs 6-8 targets a game to be an elite WR … and he’s going to get that - with a QB that graded as the best QB on those deep balls.

A lot of this is negated by the fact that Golladay faces a difficult schedule as a number 1 receiver, relying on a lame quarterback that's been set up to fail. 

Over the course of the season, he'll be matched up against Ramsey, lattimore, Howard, Slay, Jackson and Davis. While he's good enough to beat some of these guys, there aren't too many 'soft spots' in his schedule for those big, week-winning performances. 

This wouldn't be as big an issue if he had a good QB. But he has Daniel Jones, the guy who has more turnovers than TDs in his career thus far, and is terrible under pressure: as evidenced by his PFF rating of 55.7 in that situation. He saw pressure on every 3rd attempt, and took almost 50 sacks last year. How much of that is on him?

It shouldn't be a surprise for those who followed him in college, his poor completion rate under pressure and overall inefficiency was spoken about. He got a 'pass' on account of his athleticism.

Unfortunately, there's not much the Giants can do to lift Jones, as their offensive line hasn't improved. You'll need Thomas, Hernandez, and Peart to play at a high level, which i wouldn't count on. Amazingly, PFF rated this line the worst in the league; bad news for receivers depending on Jones, who'll have less time. 

With barkley coming back, i'd be surprised if the Giants allow Jones to throw more than 25 times a game. You'd have to think their key to success on offense is keep the ball out of his hands so he doesn't f+++ up. 

So what we're left with, is a low volume passing offense led by a mistake-prone QB, facing a difficult slate of cornerbacks - which even in the best case scenario - isn't gonna give you a WR1.  At the very least, it makes Kenny golladay less attractive for fantasy in comparison to the WRs going around him. 

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55 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

A lot of this is negated by the fact that Golladay faces a difficult schedule as a number 1 receiver, relying on a lame quarterback that's been set up to fail. 

Over the course of the season, he'll be matched up against Ramsey, lattimore, Howard, Slay, Jackson and Davis. While he's good enough to beat some of these guys, there aren't too many 'soft spots' in his schedule for those big, week-winning performances. 

This wouldn't be as big an issue if he had a good QB. But he has Daniel Jones, the guy who has more turnovers than TDs in his career thus far, and is terrible under pressure: as evidenced by his PFF rating of 55.7 in that situation. He saw pressure on every 3rd attempt, and took almost 50 sacks last year. How much of that is on him?

It shouldn't be a surprise for those who followed him in college, his poor completion rate under pressure and overall inefficiency was spoken about. He got a 'pass' on account of his athleticism.

Unfortunately, there's not much the Giants can do to lift Jones, as their offensive line hasn't improved. You'll need Thomas, Hernandez, and Peart to play at a high level, which i wouldn't count on. Amazingly, PFF rated this line the worst in the league; bad news for receivers depending on Jones, who'll have less time. 

With barkley coming back, i'd be surprised if the Giants allow Jones to throw more than 25 times a game. You'd have to think their key to success on offense is keep the ball out of his hands so he doesn't f+++ up. 

So what we're left with, is a low volume passing offense led by a mistake-prone QB, facing a difficult slate of cornerbacks - which even in the best case scenario - isn't gonna give you a WR1.  At the very least, it makes Kenny golladay less attractive for fantasy in comparison to the WRs going around him. 

Kenny Golladay has averaged 6.7 targets per game in his career - this “low volume” nonsense is just that, nonsense. He has never been a high volume WR, nor has he needed to be in order to lead the league in TD receptions and exceed 1000+ yards. 

I’m not interested in arguing for or against Daniel Jones … I’ve seen Golladay produce with David Blough. Despite every concern you listed re: Jones, whether you Like him or not, advanced analytics graded him as 1 of the best deep ball passers in the NFL (despite the OL, despite the sorry WR Corp, despite covid/new offense, etc.) last season. 

It also takes 30 seconds to find Golladay producing vs Stephon Gilmore and Tre White, 2 of the best in the game, at various points in his career. He doesn’t need a ton of targets or soft schedule to produce - that’s kinda the appeal.

What we are objectively left with (key word, objective) is a WR who should have no problem continuing to maintain his 6.7 targets/game who’s now receiving passes from a guy who graded as the best deep ball passer in the NFL last year - the exact routes Kenny Golladay thrives on.

Kenny Golladay is going to be receiving 6-8 targets a game, with a QB who’s best attribute marries perfectly with Golladay’s (the deep ball, the tight window/contested catch). 

More data, per PFF:
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-fantasy-fallout-kenny-golladay-signs-with-new-york-giants

Perhaps 1 of your WRs will outproduce him … just like perhaps Kenyan Drake scores on par with Travis Etienne (slated for very similar roles, high capital investment, etc.). There’s values everywhere. 


I like Kenny Golladay, you don’t. My rationale has objective data, your’s has 1 pressure rated stat (didn’t seem to impact his deep ball) and an opinion. 
 

Career stats: 6.7 targets a game, 16.8 yards a reception, 58.1 catch %.

Floor: 3.9 receptions per game, 65.4 yards, 0.45 TDs per game … 

16-game season extrapolation: 62 receptions, 1046 yards, 7 TDs … not bad for a guy who’s now playing with 1 of the NFL’s best tight window/deep ball passers (despite all the negatives you listed and no WR even close to Golladay in the lineup).

Good luck this year.

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Just now, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Kenny Golladay has averaged 6.7 targets per game in his career - this “low volume” nonsense is just that, nonsense. He has never been a high volume WR, nor has he needed to be in order to lead the league in TD receptions and exceed 1000+ yards. 

I’m not interested in arguing for or against Daniel Jones … I’ve seen Golladay produce with David Blough. Despite every concern you listed re: Jones, whether you Like him or not, advanced analytics graded him as 1 of the best deep ball passers in the NFL (despite the OL, despite the sorry WR Corp, despite covid/new offense, etc.) last season. 

It also takes 30 seconds to find Golladay producing vs Stephon Gilmore and Tre White, 2 of the best in the game, at various points in his career. He doesn’t need a ton of targets or soft schedule to produce - that’s kinda the appeal.

What we are objectively left with (key word, objective) is a WR who should have no problem continuing to maintain his 6.7 targets/game who’s now receiving passes from a guy who graded as the best deep ball passer in the NFL last year - the exact routes Kenny Golladay thrives on.

Kenny Golladay is going to be receiving 6-8 targets a game, with a QB who’s best attribute marries perfectly with Golladay’s (the deep ball, the tight window/contested catch). 

More data, per PFF:
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-fantasy-fallout-kenny-golladay-signs-with-new-york-giants

Perhaps 1 of your WRs will outproduce him … just like perhaps Kenyan Drake scores on par with Travis Etienne (slated for very similar roles, high capital investment, etc.). There’s values everywhere. 


I like Kenny Golladay, you don’t. My rationale has objective data, your’s has 1 pressure rated stat (didn’t seem to impact his deep ball) and an opinion. 
 

Career stats: 6.7 targets a game, 16.8 yards a reception, 58.1 catch %.

Floor: 3.9 receptions per game, 65.4 yards, 0.45 TDs per game … 

16-game season extrapolation: 62 receptions, 1046 yards, 7 TDs … not bad for a guy who’s now playing with 1 of the NFL’s best tight window/deep ball passers (despite all the negatives you listed and no WR even close to Golladay in the lineup).

Good luck this year.

I won't knock golladay as a player, he's good. But is he more useful than the receivers going around him? With all the questions I raised, I can argue he has little to no upside. WRs around his ADP are on better offenses, and getting the target volume and soft spots we like for fantasy. 

The deep ball passer rating is the only objective metric that makes Daniel Jones look competent, but only on the surface. 

The bigger picture shows that Jones had a below average number of deep ball attempts: 39. League average QBs throw 50+, and the good ones hit well over 60. Not a surprise when your offensive line isn't giving you time (and you keep turning it over).

This leads me to the conclusion that Golladay won't get anywhere near as many big play opportunities as WRs on other teams. He'll get a decent number of garbage targets, and the quality looks will be infrequent (especially when facing good cornerbacks).

He's a WR3 being drafted as a WR2. If he plays a full season, you're gonna see his yards per catch hit a career low. 

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12 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

I won't knock golladay as a player, he's good. But is he more useful than the receivers going around him? With all the questions I raised, I can argue he has little to no upside. WRs around his ADP are on better offenses, and getting the target volume and soft spots we like for fantasy. 

The deep ball passer rating is the only objective metric that makes Daniel Jones look competent, but only on the surface. 

The bigger picture shows that Jones had a below average number of deep ball attempts: 39. League average QBs throw 50+, and the good ones hit well over 60. Not a surprise when your offensive line isn't giving you time (and you keep turning it over).

This leads me to the conclusion that Golladay won't get anywhere near as many big play opportunities as WRs on other teams. He'll get a decent number of garbage targets, and the quality looks will be infrequent (especially when facing good cornerbacks).

He's a WR3 being drafted as a WR2. If he plays a full season, you're gonna see his yards per catch hit a career low. 

You seem to care a lot more about my WR3 than I do … I like him, you don’t. 1. He’s my WR3 … and I’m quite content with that. 
 

I think drafting Tee Higgins over Jamar Chase is silly. I think starting 3 RBs in this format is foolish. That’s why I didn’t do it.
 

The thing is, it doesn’t matter. I like Kenny Golladay - and I don’t dismiss the analytics that point to him and Jones being a perfect tandem … You clearly don’t. the good news is I’m not trying to trade him so you don’t have to worry about it.

He was drafted in the same tier as Aiyuk/Beckham/Thielen … and is my WR3. I’m quite happy flexing a 60/1000 yard player (floor) who’s led the NFL in TD receptions before.

It’s also blatantly obvious you just hate Daniel Jones … despite him cutting turnover worthy plays in half and grading among the NFL’s best in clean pocket/tight window/deep throws in his 2nd season with an awful OL/WR Corp. Any research beyond some lazy TD/INT google search will lay this all out for you. And again, we’re talking about a WR who’s already produced on less than 7 targets a game - with his career year coming while David Blough QB’d half the season.

Good luck this year. Thank you for your input. 

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6 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

You seem to care a lot more about my WR3 than I do … I like him, you don’t. 1. He’s my WR3 … and I’m quite content with that. 
 

I think drafting Tee Higgins over Jamar Chase is silly. I think starting 3 RBs in this format is foolish. That’s why I didn’t do it.
 

The thing is, it doesn’t matter. I like Kenny Golladay - and I don’t dismiss the analytics that point to him and Jones being a perfect tandem … You clearly don’t. the good news is I’m not trying to trade him so you don’t have to worry about it.

He was drafted in the same tier as Aiyuk/Beckham/Thielen … and is my WR3. I’m quite happy flexing a 60/1000 yard player (floor) who’s led the NFL in TD receptions before.

It’s also blatantly obvious you just hate Daniel Jones … despite him cutting turnover worthy plays in half and grading among the NFL’s best in clean pocket/tight window/deep throws in his 2nd season with an awful OL/WR Corp. Any research beyond some lazy TD/INT google search will lay this all out for you. And again, we’re talking about a WR who’s already produced on less than 7 targets a game - with his career year coming while David Blough QB’d half the season.

Good luck this year. Thank you for your input. 

Why do you get so sensitive every year?

No one is attacking you, your team, or your draft.

The intent of this league is to help us all assess and evaluate the draft as a whole, to gain perspective for leagues that matter.

Owning\drafting Golloday doesn't mean you need to go to War for him, we can still be objective for ranking, analysis, projections etc.

Im glad you pointed out that he's not as volume dependent as many, myself included, may have thought.  I think that's a side effect of playing with Stafford, because we know he throws 600 times for 5000 yards every year, so I was likely weighing that too heavily against him.

Personally, I was strongly considering Golloday this year, as a post hype sleeper type.  I absolutely believe in the talent.  The injury is pure luck and doesn't reflect on you at all.  I think he was drafted in the right spot. P05 makes some good points, but multiple of the recievers in this range have question marks, and betting on the young talented wr who's done it before, can't be faulted.

I would rather own (and will rank) Golloday (health aside) than;

OBJ, any of the Cin WRs, any of the Pit WRs.

I think, because of Stafford, one of the LAR WRs will be better than Golloday, the other will be close~equal, but I have no clue which, so pick your poison.  I think Theilan and Golloday will be equal at end of year in most scenarios, but Golloday has more upside as a chance to exceed his draft if a few things go his\NYG way.

I would rather have Lockett, Aiyuk, and DJ Moore than Golloday and all of the other WRs mentioned above.  I prefer Evans because of his TD upside, Godwin is probably in the Theilan range.

Still working on my WR rankings, but for me Golloday is going to end up right in that 20-25 range.  I think the concerns P05 raised are valid and legitimate, but that's why Golloday is going where he is.  So I think he was drafted in the right area, I like the pick.

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Why do you get so sensitive every year?

No one is attacking you, your team, or your draft.

The intent of this league is to help us all assess and evaluate the draft as a whole, to gain perspective for leagues that matter.

Owning\drafting Golloday doesn't mean you need to go to War for him, we can still be objective for ranking, analysis, projections etc.

Im glad you pointed out that he's not as volume dependent as many, myself included, may have thought.  I think that's a side effect of playing with Stafford, because we know he throws 600 times for 5000 yards every year, so I was likely weighing that too heavily against him.

Personally, I was strongly considering Golloday this year, as a post hype sleeper type.  I absolutely believe in the talent.  The injury is pure luck and doesn't reflect on you at all.  I think he was drafted in the right spot. P05 makes some good points, but multiple of the recievers in this range have question marks, and betting on the young talented wr who's done it before, can't be faulted.

I would rather own (and will rank) Golloday (health aside) than;

OBJ, any of the Cin WRs, any of the Pit WRs.

I think, because of Stafford, one of the LAR WRs will be better than Golloday, the other will be close~equal, but I have no clue which, so pick your poison.  I think Theilan and Golloday will be equal at end of year in most scenarios, but Golloday has more upside as a chance to exceed his draft if a few things go his\NYG way.

I would rather have Lockett, Aiyuk, and DJ Moore than Golloday and all of the other WRs mentioned above.  I prefer Evans because of his TD upside, Godwin is probably in the Theilan range.

Still working on my WR rankings, but for me Golloday is going to end up right in that 20-25 range.  I think the concerns P05 raised are valid and legitimate, but that's why Golloday is going where he is.  So I think he was drafted in the right area, I like the pick.


I have low tolerance for unsubstantiated opinions and lazy analysis. “Kenny Golladay was a mistake because … reasons that’s don’t make much sense and/or simply aren’t true.” (Not referring to you, just the general downgrade in this forum as a whole)

Highlighting the target/volume dependence is important, I think that’s an all-too-common misconception of Golladay. You’ve seen elite production with him, at times with horrific QB play (Stafford has become beyond overrated and Blough is not even in the league), all while averaging less than 7 targets a game.

The Daniel Jones analysis by most people is also beyond lazy (googled his TDs and turnovers and therefore he sucks). Whether he’s good or not remains to be seen. Objective data supports he’s 1 of the best deep ball/tight window/clean pocket passers in the NFL. He also hits top speeds faster than Lamar Jackson in the open field. He actually improved dramatically in year 2, despite a train wreck of a supporting cast and what TD totals suggest. 

We’re talking about 1 of the best deep threat/contested catch WRs in the league, who’s already got 1000 yard seasons and a league-leading TD season under his belt, now going to be fed the ball by a QB which every objective data point suggests he should pair quite well with. This isn’t opinion, it’s objective data applied to projections. There is no logical reason for an elite deep ball WR and an elite deep ball QB to not mesh well. Especially when that WR is a redzone/contested catch aficionado and has produced throughout his career despite averaging less than 7 targets a game.

I could not care less if people “like” Kenny Golladay or my selection of him, if you’re going to call me out at least come with a well thought out and supported argument.  I see a stud WR who’s skill set meshes beautifully with Jones’ (based on everything data aligns with) available 20+ WR into a draft - I’m taking him every time, and will continue to do so.

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21 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

You seem to care a lot more about my WR3 than I do … I like him, you don’t. 1. He’s my WR3 … and I’m quite content with that. 
 

I think drafting Tee Higgins over Jamar Chase is silly. I think starting 3 RBs in this format is foolish. That’s why I didn’t do it.
 

The thing is, it doesn’t matter. I like Kenny Golladay - and I don’t dismiss the analytics that point to him and Jones being a perfect tandem … You clearly don’t. the good news is I’m not trying to trade him so you don’t have to worry about it.

He was drafted in the same tier as Aiyuk/Beckham/Thielen … and is my WR3. I’m quite happy flexing a 60/1000 yard player (floor) who’s led the NFL in TD receptions before.

It’s also blatantly obvious you just hate Daniel Jones … despite him cutting turnover worthy plays in half and grading among the NFL’s best in clean pocket/tight window/deep throws in his 2nd season with an awful OL/WR Corp. Any research beyond some lazy TD/INT google search will lay this all out for you. And again, we’re talking about a WR who’s already produced on less than 7 targets a game - with his career year coming while David Blough QB’d half the season.

Good luck this year. Thank you for your input. 

Why shouldn't I care?

The whole point of fantasy football is to debate, that's what every draft selection comes down to: a debate on why player x is better than player y. It's not a big deal. 

If you think Daniel Jones can get a WR1 season out of Golladay while his 32nd ranked offensive line fails to give him sufficient time to throw enough deep balls, then you're setting yourself up for disappointment. I'm not sure how you can ignore Jones' inefficiency under pressure, but that's the other side of the argument. And its miles away from a 'lazy TD/INT' google search. I

I have no problem with anyone commenting on my  team. Higgins was an easy pick for me, he's in great shape and spent his off-season training with Jalen Ramsey. He had an easy transition to the NFL, whereas jamarr Chase hasn't played football in over a year. Burrow being one of the league leaders in pass attempts makes him a pretty safe pick no matter what. 

Courtland Sutton will probably do what you're expecting from Kenny Golladay.

There's no substitute for an elite RB in fantasy football. Good WRs are a dime-a-dozen.

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