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help me make a trade. Walsh Bellinger?


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Currently in 2nd place, but have lost 3 out of the last 4. Looking to make a splash in the trade market. See any potential sell high candidates or areas of weaknesses or strengths? Thoughts on flipping Walsh in a sell high for a buy low Bellinger?

7 x 7 categories, keeper league where each team gets 1 win or loss each week. For example, if I get 6 cats to 4 cats for a given week, I get 1 win.

R, 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, SB, AVG.       &     W's, complete games, SV's,  K's, ERA, WHIP, QS

My team (with keeper eligibility next to each player): 

C- Kiner-Falefa (rd 14 2022, rd 7 2023 & rd 4 2024)    1b- Walsh (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024)  2b- Semien (rd. 7 2022 & rd 4 2023),   3b- K Bryant (rd 6 2022),     

SS- Tatis (rd 8 2022, rd 4 2023)   OF- JD Mart (rd 4 2022), Harper, Castellanos.   UTL- A Riley (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024)

Bench - Brantley (rd 11 2022 & rd 6 2023), McNeil (rd 5 2022) , E. Escobar (rd 13 2022, rd 7 2023, rd 4 2024)

 

SP- C Rodon (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) ,        T Mahle (rd 12 2022 & rd 6 2023),               C. Mize (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) , Z Eflin (rd 14 2022, rd 7 2023 & rd 4 2024),

       T Gonsolin (rd 17 2022, rd 9 2023, & rd 5 2024),  W Peralta (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) ,  D. Keuchel (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) ,

       P Corbin (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) ,

RP - M Barnes (rd 15 2022, rd 8 2023, rd 4 2024) 

NA- T. Bauer

 IL-   Darvish (rd 5 2022), Snell (rd 4 2022), Sale (rd 20 2022, rd 10 2023, & rd 5 2024)    

 

ALWAYS WHIR W A LINK!

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4 hours ago, JonathanGunz12 said:

Thanks all. Probably not going to offer Walsh since he has 3 years of keeper eligibility.

Understood. I like the Bellinger trade for a couple of reasons, but can understand wanting to keep Walsh too. You may already be aware of all of this, but in spite of his excellent performance so far in 2021, there are warning signs to look out for (I have a couple shares myself). His surface stats have held up nicely, but there are some underlying signals that say he could be in for some regression:

1) He has a very high ground ball rate for a power hitter, about 43% (was over 50% for May & June), and line drive rate also well below league average

2) Very high K% rate, which was true for him in the minors as well...over 30% in May/June, now at 28% for the season. 

3) BABIP at .338, 47 points above league average. 

4) Has an xwOBA 40 points below his wOBA.

5) His splits righty vs lefty are terrible. He's slashing .177/.205/.389 vs. lefties, all well below league average. Unless that dramatically improves, his owners will have to get used to accepting no production or negative production about 25-30% of the time (if he continues to get those starts). 

Now, having said all of that, he is still young and developing, and could overcome all of this. Only his third year in, and limited playing time in the first two. His surface numbers have survived so far because of elite HR/FB and barrel % rates, which is of course a good sign. But those other numbers will have to improve or he is almost certain to regress. I'm not calling him a sell-high candidate, but there are those who are. As far as Bellinger, yes his numbers have been bad for 2020 & 2021, but a high percentage of major leaguers had a really bad 2020, and he got hurt four days into 2021, then was back for less than two weeks before getting injured again. He hasn't had much of a chance to get any momentum this season yet. Also, he is the opposite of Walsh for his expected numbers (both xBA and xwOBA much higher than actual stats) and a measly .225 BABIP. And he has had three full seasons of top tier production, including an MVP season in 2019. We know he can do it, and he's only 25 years old.

 

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