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Alvin Kamara 2021 Outlook


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Didn’t see a thread for Alvin (presumably because he’s such a stud that not much needs to be said). However, I think his degree of studliness changes with this Michael Thomas news. Truly not sure whether I like him more or less with this news, so I’m hoping for some helpful back and forth on this. 

On the one hand, they have no choice but to feed AK big volume while Thomas is out. Big volume = big points. Is it that simple? Numbers from last year seem to suggest this is the case.

Other school of thought: He is now the only serious weapon in this offense (I like Smith and Trautman, but defenses aren’t losing sleep over these guys). In theory, he will be the focus of the defense each and every game and his otherworldly efficiency could suffer. 
 

I think I prefer him with Thomas because he was going to have nice volume regardless and it made the offense more multidimensional. Interested in hearing your thoughts. 

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  • tonycpsu changed the title to Alvin Kamara 2021 Outlook

I think there's actually a huge question mark with Kamara now that Brees is gone.  IIRC Winston didn't check down to his RBs a ton in Tampa Bay, and in last year's games when Hill started (weeks 11-14), Kamara's targets were 1, 2, 3, and 10.  If Hill is starting, Kamara is going to lose out on some short TDs.  Without all of the receptions, and with Latavius still around, Kamara's stats are probably going to take a hit.

I still have Kamara as a first round pick, and he should still be a RB1, but for half-PPR right now I have him after CMC, Cook, Henry, and Elliot.  I haven't decided between Barkley and Kamara for #5 vs #6.  Barkley has injury and team concerns as well of course.

Perhaps with Thomas being out Kamara will be used more in the passing game?  I don't recall if Kamara ever lined up as a WR on some plays.

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1 hour ago, ZappB said:

I think there's actually a huge question mark with Kamara now that Brees is gone.  IIRC Winston didn't check down to his RBs a ton in Tampa Bay, and in last year's games when Hill started (weeks 11-14), Kamara's targets were 1, 2, 3, and 10.  If Hill is starting, Kamara is going to lose out on some short TDs.  Without all of the receptions, and with Latavius still around, Kamara's stats are probably going to take a hit.

I still have Kamara as a first round pick, and he should still be a RB1, but for half-PPR right now I have him after CMC, Cook, Henry, and Elliot.  I haven't decided between Barkley and Kamara for #5 vs #6.  Barkley has injury and team concerns as well of course.

Perhaps with Thomas being out Kamara will be used more in the passing game?  I don't recall if Kamara ever lined up as a WR on some plays.

Yea anytime I start to question usage, I reassure myself that Sean Payton is a genius and will make damn sure his best offensive weapon is utilized. With this in mind, I have no volume concerns. 

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While the receptions obviously bolster Kamara it’s been his TDs that have carried him to elite status. I don’t think there’s any way he has a 16-20 TD season on this team. Even if Payton makes all his usual considerations to use him at the goal line we’re still likely only looking at 10ish touchdowns in what would be a successful season.

1500 yards with 80 catches and 10 tds is still a great season but it’s not going to separate him from the rest of the pack trailing CMC, Dalvin and Henry

Edited by P@ckersFan
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Kamara averaged 2.5 receptions per game last season when Brees was out.

He's been very dependent on TDs and receptions because his rushing volume is very low for a top 5 pick. Now he is going to have a QB that doesn't throw to RBs often and a team that is going to offer less scoring opportunities.

Thomas or not he isn't worth a top 5 pick.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Kamara averaged 2.5 receptions per game last season when Brees was out.

He's been very dependent on TDs and receptions because his rushing volume is very low for a top 5 pick. Now he is going to have a QB that doesn't throw to RBs often and a team that is going to offer less scoring opportunities.

Thomas or not he isn't worth a top 5 pick.

Bucs RBs had 82 catches in 2019 with Winston. I realize that they threw it a ton but Kamara might get 60 instead of the usual 80. He might get the biggest workload of his career behind a great Oline. 

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No Drew Brees, no Michael Thomas equates fantasy supremacy for Alvin Kamara? Production-wise, he was kept from reaching his full potential with their presence? He benefitted! I don't profess to know where to draft him & I could be wrong but it isn't in the 1st round.  

Edited by markrc99
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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

No Drew Brees, no Michael Thomas equates fantasy supremacy for Alvin Kamara? Production-wise, he was kept from reaching his full potential with their presence? He benefitted! I don't profess to know where to draft him & I could be wrong but it isn't in the 1st round.  

Ouch....I didn't think he would fall that far...come on.

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Jameis not checking down shouldn't really apply here.   He had Evans, Godwin, Desean, and so many others.  Here he'll have basically Kamara only.  

It's not wrong to worry about efficiency here, but Kamara is the centerpiece, he always will be, even when Thomas comes back.  

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5 hours ago, markrc99 said:

No Drew Brees, no Michael Thomas equates fantasy supremacy for Alvin Kamara? Production-wise, he was kept from reaching his full potential with their presence? He benefitted! I don't profess to know where to draft him & I could be wrong but it isn't in the 1st round.  

What 12 players do you have over Kamara?

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8 hours ago, Evincar said:

"What 12 players do you have over Kamara?"

I don't rank players, I practice draft and have a short list of options for each selection. I have an early 1st in only one league, but I would sooner trade back from the 3rd overall & select Jonathan Taylor or Nick Chubb + whatever capital I accrued in the exchange. Either of them & moving up 4 or 5 spots in the 2nd round, I'd take that deal every time. But that's strategy & your question is more about value & obviously I have a different viewpoint. Get rid of the HOF QB & the legit z-slot honker & the RB is in fantasy wonderland? I suppose, it appears Aaron Jones' stock is on the rise. Hypothetically, should the Packers decide to cut their losses & entertain the massive haul they'd rake in trading Rodgers & Adams both, Jones then becomes a top-5 guy or something?

It's nothing personal against Kamara, I don't like Jones right now, I don't like Devante Adams either. I like offenses that add & are ascending, not previous SB contenders who have lost major core pieces. I tend to fade those offenses. You get Kamara out in space, which they were able to do, he's deadly! At the collegiate level, bounced around, was in three different programs, suspended by Nick Saban on several occasions. With everything so cushy, so lovely, oh, yeah, a guy. All the success he's enjoyed, but now that they're losers, is he going to assume a key leadership role in that locker room? Maybe.

When Winston was in Tampa, Peyton Barber & Ronald Jones, Barber in particular saw more loaded fronts than ANY other RB! For me, it's the likelihood that the carries available are more of the grind variety with a highly contested short zone. A lot of frustration, the team arrow pointing downward, I don't like him at all. I think there's a good chance that Latavius Murray assumes a lot of those. You & others have it that it was entirely about him, he's uber dynamic. I saw those plays too, but I have it that it was them getting him the ball in space, which is what he is great at. My fear is that the short zone time & space is gone, he's now the focal point of every defense.  

Edited by markrc99
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I mean, I do get the sentiment that Kamara has risk here, but I think you're overthinking it.  They weren't a juggernaut last year or anything.  Brees was painful at times and missed 4 games .  Michael Thomas barely existed.   Kamara was still RB1 overall.    

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9 hours ago, BrianM said:

"I mean, I do get the sentiment that Kamara has risk here, but I think you're overthinking it.  They weren't a juggernaut last year or anything. Brees was painful at times and missed 4 games. Michael Thomas barely existed. Kamara was still RB1 overall."    

Could be. . That Thomas missed time & Brees wasn't as effective would be considerations if it had changed how they were defended. Brees' ability to find receivers downfield was still being respected, to me that's important. When things changed was when Taysom Hill became the starter. Winston has started a lot of games, neither of these QBs has warranted that same level of respect. In fact, it's been the exact opposite, defenses have invited them to throw the football. If that's about to change then you are going to be proven right. 

Accordingly, over the last 3 or 4 years Brees has thrown to his RBs over 28% of the time, which is tops in the NFL. While in Tampa, Winston threw to his RBs only 16% of the time. I've also read that they had to clear around $100M in cap space, having to let quality complement weapons go (Sanders & Cook), w/o much in the way of replacement. I think Kamara's "light front carry rate" ranking of 45th is about to experience a radical change. If that happens & he has to bang up inside more, I don't know. 

What I do think Payton will do is expand Kamara's depth of route. Which could put Kamara & Murray on the field at the same time more than fantasy owners might've expected. Find ways to free up Kamara as a rec'r behind those loaded boxes. But still, defenses shouldn't care what the Saints do with Kamara, account for him on every play he's out there & make someone else beat them.       

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Winston's target % of back is a stat being overanalyzed here lately.  Look at his weapons in Tampa....why would he not have been feeding the WR's there heavily?  NTM Arians had an aggressive downfield mindset.     The Saints aren't going to not throw to Kamara if he's in the lineup because he's used to chucking it deep, that's ludicrous.    They're down a lot of talent and turning a page to a chapter where the only bankable thing they have is Kamara going in to week one.  Only an idiot isn't throwing to him regularly, and Payton's no idiot. 

I do think they're in somewhat of a pickle in terms of weaponry now.  I don't think Cook and Sanders were amazing last year or anything, but they had to at least be accounted for.   I've always believed Taysom Hill is Payton's preferred QB over Winston, but they might have no choice but to have Hill stay in his flex role.  He might be their best receiver atm.   

 

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I really hope i'm not in a position to decide if I should draft him this year.  I really don't like the Saints this year without Brees and they'll be lucky to reach .500.    On the other hand, Kamara is a stud and Sean Payton is a good coach.   I'm very iffy about him.

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1 hour ago, nk2333 said:

I really hope i'm not in a position to decide if I should draft him this year.  I really don't like the Saints this year without Brees and they'll be lucky to reach .500.    On the other hand, Kamara is a stud and Sean Payton is a good coach.   I'm very iffy about him.

8-1 record without brees the last 2 years. This isn’t like the patriots last year when Brady left. The Defense is still good, oline is still good, run game is always good with Sean Payton whoever the QB is they’ve had at least 1 full year to learn the system. I think they’ll be ok not a Super Bowl contender or anything tho. We’ll find out how important brees really was good the team that’s for sure. Either way they didn’t pay an RB all that money to not use him. Kamara will get plenty of touches. 

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