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Fantasy baseball: strategy, luck, or both? If both, which plays a bigger role?


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Every year this thread gets created and every year I want to bash my head on the computer screen reading some of the replies. Chances are if you think this game is purely luck you are a perpetual losing player that has subconsciously convinced yourself that it is all luck to make yourself feel better about losing all the time.

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Every year this thread gets created and every year I want to bash my head on the computer screen reading some of the replies. Chances are if you think this game is purely luck you are a perpetual losing player that has subconsciously convinced yourself that it is all luck to make yourself feel better about losing all the time.

That is what a lot of people probably think, but it isn't true...  I won a 12-team league for the first time last season that was started in 2002...  It was all luck...

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44 minutes ago, 5catstud said:

Player evaluation is a skill - knowing why to draft or trade for a player over another and not just going purely off ranking lists takes understanding

Right as is having good judgment on roster construction and strategy. 

Effort is the de facto entry fee to contending for the playoffs but look at your leaguemates. There are several people who are equally active. There is no shortage of information out there. Each major platform has free fantasy baseball resources. Then there are sites like NBCSE and Rotowire that a lot of serious players will use, including associated message boards. On top of this there is the proliferation of fantasy podcasts. Generally speaking, everyone is looking at similar information but making different decisions based on it. This isn't 1990 where the guy who bought a fantasy magazine had a big leg up on the competition.

OOg0Z6f.gif 

Edited by Ace_King
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9 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Every year this thread gets created and every year I want to bash my head on the computer screen reading some of the replies. Chances are if you think this game is purely luck you are a perpetual losing player that has subconsciously convinced yourself that it is all luck to make yourself feel better about losing all the time.

LOL didn't know this was an annual thing here, but you're absolutely right about the "Whoa is me" it was all luck being just an excuse. I wonder how many good fantasy baseball players are also poker players like myself, or are involved in other games of gambling/analytical skills. The discipline and mindset to being successful at both is very similar. You're trying to gain insight and read the room, think how other players value different players/poker hands, try to find weaknesses, etc. There is a huge mathematical aspect of the game as well. On that point, there is plenty of reason to accept that fully attacking the math will give a fantasy and poker player a big edge. I'm not a huge math guy in either, I know the importance stuff and use other things like feel and memory in my decision making. But, you have to combine that with good fundamentals too; for example bankroll management is important in both games. If you draft four of the top 20 guys you have to fill in with lotto tickets, and get lucky, etc. Sometimes that guy gets Mullins and Rodon, but usually he also drafted Mookie or Yelich alongside Tatis and Acuna and Bieber, you get the point. Those guys-they always lose unless they get totally lucky.

Also, big part of the appeal-even the better players don't expect to win, just to have a better chance to win. You need to finish top 3 in poker tournaments and fantasy baseball games to profit, but no one would play if the "best players" always won. In the long run, they will, but year to year, it varies. As I said, the tools at the disposal of the average player are increasing, making it harder, so study up and remember rust never sleeps. Both games are about the grind, the slow pursuit of value, occasionally pulling off a brilliant bluff in form of a well-timed buy low/sell-high trade. That's my best strength, I tend to always "win" my trades that matter, occasionally drawing the ire of some who feels I gain too much, but I always say, let people make their own decisions. This season I've focused more on having fun, because next year I expect to get back to some higher buy ins and spicier games. 

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16 minutes ago, posty said:

Please keep it coming everyone...  As they say, "laughter is the best medicine"...

:lol:

So, why don't you just discuss your points and let others discuss theirs. Whether I agree with you or not is immaterial. Posts like this are purely inflammatory with the intent of creating an argument from your perceived place of superiority. 

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19 minutes ago, posty said:

That is what a lot of people probably think, but it isn't true...  I won a 12-team league for the first time last season that was started in 2002...  It was all luck...

I think the fact that a perpetual losing player needs a bizarre, shortened 60 game season to finally finish in first actually perfectly illustrates my point.

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1 minute ago, Richard Kimble said:

LOL didn't know this was an annual thing here, 

Aside from player threads, it's probably the one thread that pops up seemingly every year. 

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1 minute ago, meh2 said:

I think the fact that a perpetual losing player needs a bizarre, shortened 60 game season to finally finish in first actually perfectly illustrates my point.

Ding ding ding!

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1 minute ago, meh2 said:

I think the fact that a perpetual losing player needs a bizarre, shortened 60 game season to finally finish in first actually perfectly illustrates my point.

In poker terms we'd say "Don't tap the fishbowl" 🐡🐠🐟🐳🦈

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17 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I think the fact that a perpetual losing player needs a bizarre, shortened 60 game season to finally finish in first actually perfectly illustrates my point.

Yep, finally had some luck on my side...

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50 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Every year this thread gets created and every year I want to bash my head on the computer screen reading some of the replies. Chances are if you think this game is purely luck you are a perpetual losing player that has subconsciously convinced yourself that it is all luck to make yourself feel better about losing all the time.

Kind of agree. Saying it's all luck is just outing you as a terrible player. I place like 90% of the time. Wish I was that lucky.  There are elements of luck for sure, but in every league there are good players and bad players. I've never been part of a fantasy league for more than a few years where the standings were upside down each year, even in redraft.

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20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Kind of agree. Saying it's all luck is just outing you as a terrible player. I place like 90% of the time. Wish I was that lucky.  There are elements of luck for sure, but in every league there are good players and bad players. I've never been part of a fantasy league for more than a few years where the standings were upside down each year, even in redraft.

That's what posty will never have an answer for. If it's so much luck, then why are the usual suspects generally at the top of the standings? Can one of them have a down year or be ravaged by injuries and drop out of the top half? Sure, but in my longtime leagues, it's pretty much the same guys getting paid at the end of the year. If that's not a strike against posty's "100% luck" chant, then I don't know what is. 

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25 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Kind of agree. Saying it's all luck is just outing you as a terrible player. I place like 90% of the time. Wish I was that lucky.  There are elements of luck for sure, but in every league there are good players and bad players. I've never been part of a fantasy league for more than a few years where the standings were upside down each year, even in redraft.

Same here, but it isn't because of "skill"...  As I stated above, putting in time and effort to keep on top of a team is not a "skill"...  The leagues that I have played in, the ones that migrate to the bottom either don't pay attention that much or have a lot of injuries...  Neither of that is a "skill"...

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Just now, collucho said:

posty obviously doesn't put too much thought into his posts just as he obviously doesn't put much thought into drafting or managing his fantasy teams. 

LOL...

It is so much fun to see how people react when they are told that a game that they are playing where they think there is "skill" is in fact all luck...

They just attack the messenger...

I have said it before, once you realize that it is luck, one enjoys the game much more enjoyable...

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