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Fantasy baseball: strategy, luck, or both? If both, which plays a bigger role?


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15 minutes ago, Marcus Anthony said:

I’d say it’s 10% luck
20% skill
15% concentrated power of will
5% pleasure
50% pain
And 100% reason to remember the name. 
 

This is the only right answer. 

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3 minutes ago, posty said:

Same here, but it isn't because of "skill"...  As I stated above, putting in time and effort to keep on top of a team is not a "skill"...  The leagues that I have played in, the ones that migrate to the bottom either don't pay attention that much or have a lot of injuries...  Neither of that is a "skill"...

Well, it sure isn't luck. 

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1 minute ago, posty said:

LOL...

It is so much fun to see how people react when they are told that a game that they are playing where they think there is "skill" is in fact all luck...

They just attack the messenger...

I have said it before, once you realize that it is luck, one enjoys the game much more enjoyable...

I enjoy winning. Losing for 20 years straight doesn't seem like fun to me. To each his own though bud! At least you're having a blast in this thread thinking you're getting to people!!! 

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1 minute ago, posty said:

LOL...

It is so much fun to see how people react when they are told that a game that they are playing where they think there is "skill" is in fact all luck...

They just attack the messenger...

I have said it before, once you realize that it is luck, one enjoys the game much more enjoyable...

See, you call it "fact", when in reality, it's your opinion. And I'm not even sure you really believe your own "opinion". I think you get a kick out of trolling people. 

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Just now, collucho said:

I enjoy winning. Losing for 20 years straight doesn't seem like fun to me. To each his own though bud! At least you're having a blast in this thread thinking you're getting to people!!! 

LOL

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2 minutes ago, collucho said:

I enjoy winning. Losing for 20 years straight doesn't seem like fun to me. To each his own though bud! At least you're having a blast in this thread thinking you're getting to people!!! 

Well, he is trolling and is doing pretty well with it, so he probably is getting a kick out of it. No person with two brain cells to rub together truly believes fantasy sports 100 percent luck.

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I agree fantasy baseball is 100% luck.

This year I drafted myself, my wife, our pet kittens, an avocado, and a bottle of sunscreen. Other teams drafted Major League Baseball players. I am in last place, but that's just bad luck. I had no way of knowing that Fernando Tatis Jr. would produce better baseball statistics than my vacuum cleaner. No one could have possibly known that. Pure luck.

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5 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

I agree fantasy baseball is 100% luck.

This year I drafted myself, my wife, our pet kittens, an avocado, and a bottle of sunscreen. Other teams drafted Major League Baseball players. I am in last place, but that's just bad luck. I had no way of knowing that Fernando Tatis Jr. would produce better baseball statistics than my vacuum cleaner. No one could have possibly known that. Pure luck.

Well-timed levity :D

And I'm betting posty neve made it past the first line. Just gave a standing O clapping and whooping. Lol!

Edited by Flyman75
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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

Every year this thread gets created and every year I want to bash my head on the computer screen reading some of the replies. Chances are if you think this game is purely luck you are a perpetual losing player that has subconsciously convinced yourself that it is all luck to make yourself feel better about losing all the time.

Kind of agree. Saying it's all luck is just outing you as a terrible player. I win like 100% of the time in rotoworld mock drafts. Wish I was that lucky.  There are elements of luck for sure, but in every league there are good players and bad players. I've never been part of a fantasy league for more than a few years where the standings were upside down each year, even in redraft.

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I would day 70/30 skill/luck but it depends on the format.  In an auction/keeper league there's way more skill vs a redraft h2h league.  Fantasy baseball and poker share a lot in common on the skill/luck factor.  In poker you can be an 80/20 favorite and still lose the hand.  Over the short term the luck wins out and anything can happen but over the long term skill plays a larger role.  It's the same way in fantasy baseball.  Player analysis and draft strategy is all about getting those small edges.  Naturally there are things we can't account for such as the unexpected player who breaks out and exceeds all expectations but a skillful player can find tiny bits of value throughout their roster and give themselves the best chance of having their players exceed expectations even if they don't capture the huge out of nowhere breakouts

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if im being serious its def more skill than luck.  i think it varies year to year though, from 60/40 to 80/20 (skill/luck)

 

i  mean, some years you just have several big injuries and several women beaters which is nearly impossible to predict...throw in covid protocols and i feel like this year was 40/60 for me tbh

Edited by jfazz23
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4 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

Kind of agree. Saying it's all luck is just outing you as a terrible player. I win like 100% of the time in rotoworld mock drafts. Wish I was that lucky.  There are elements of luck for sure, but in every league there are good players and bad players. I've never been part of a fantasy league for more than a few years where the standings were upside down each year, even in redraft.

Mock drafts are a great inflection point, they give you so much information about who the field will love and hate. I expected, correctly, that there would be a friggin' bidding war over Cavan Biggio this year because he was the "last" multi-position guy with 20/20 upside. Meanwhile everyone bypassed Marcus Semien, not realizing he'd gain 2B immediately and would be better at his worst than Biggio at his best. I could go on but this is one obvious example that springs to mind. 

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